If I was rich.......

[Bob P.]

Greetings,
I'm pretty familiar with that area. Fish that stretch of Jackson every spring. It's OK, but not the best stretch of that stream by a long shot. Ken, as for turning it into a camp ground, doubt very much that surrounding property owners would go along with that. Main access is at the back end of a very nice established sub-division. Nice piece of property though. If I had that kind of dough though, I'd be looking to the north woods to hide a fortress in(sorry about the dangling prep.) Why do you think that about the future of real estate? I've always respected your thinking and am just curious about your thoughts.

C. P. R .

Bob P.

[Ken G]

If I had that kind of dough though, I'd be looking to the north woods to hide a fortress in(sorry about the dangling prep.)
Why do you think that about the future of real estate? I've always respected your thinking and am just curious about your thoughts.

Bob, my sentiments exactly.

I have a whole theory in my head, too long and needs some figuring yet.

In a nutshell, people my parents age and baby boomers that bought houses for under $50,000 (my parents was 21,500) years ago are now dying off and retiring. They all think their homes are going to be worth 250,000 or more. (Except for my dad, he laughs and thinks people are crazy. His comments on that are what spurs my theory. More on that later.)

The average man makes 46,000. The average woman 33,000. In a few years my daughter will graduate from college and probably get a job that pays around 33,000. Combined they won't be able to afford a 250,000 home. They'll over extend themselves thinking they can, then the guy will laid off or have to take a 30% pay cut just for shits and giggles. And their delicate economic balancing act will collapse.

So think about it. There is going to be a glut of homes in the next 10 years that no one will buy because no one can afford it. The real estate market will then collapse even worse than it is now. It is going to get worse in the next couple of years and then snow ball out of control for years after that.

WHY? Because I already know a lot of guys around 50 that are being laid off, wages cut and can no longer find work in the career of their choice. The young guys don't get that part, yet. These guys are going to lose their homes because they can no longer afford them. That is happening now.

Simple rules my dad taught me:
Buy a home that is equal to or less than your gross income for one year.
Whoever said that a home's value had to increase 10% or more per year.
Don't ever think you will work for anyone the rest of your life because as soon as they have the chance, they'll get rid of you.

It's not a matter of whether or not this is going to happen, but when. There's more, but back to work.

[Bob P.]

Ken,
Pretty dire stuff. While i agree with alot of what you say, i hope for all of our sakes that you are off a bit. Personally, i still have a house to sell. i'm sure many others here will at some point as well. While i don't think it would be good to return to the inflated house prices we saw(or the "easy" money), some semblence (with major changes and restrictions) of a turn around in housing and the overall economy is desperately needed.
i think you are going to see a new bottom line in"full" employment when and if this ever ends. The old standard was 4%to 5%. i believe that will now be 6 1/2% to as much as 8%. Right now, things still don't look very encouraging. Hopefully that will start to change the second half of this year.
Out of curiousity, what did your dad earn the year he bought that house for 21,500? If he paid that amount, i'm guessing he bought some time in the late 60's or early 70's. If i'm thinking correctly, i believe you've mentioned that he was a roofer? t Mortgaging a payment more than 25% of your net income can be financial suicide. That's the problem, all these institutions started approving loans at much bigger percentages than that. i once had a loan officer try to talk me into one of those scenarious. After he showed me the numbers, we both laughed as i asked him how he thought i was going to pay for other luxuries like food and clothing. Needless to say, i rejected his offer.
Thanks for your thoughts.

C. P. R.

Bob P.

[smallmouthfisher]

Been there done that.. lol New Manhattan there is a Red Round Barn and people park there for access. I think that is jackson creek. I have caught some smallies but not like HC.